The Asymco aphorism: “Every time an expert complains, a cash register rings.” Contemplate re. ad critiques.— Horace Dediu (@asymco) July 30, 2012
It’s such a spineless piece, and mostly I just feel bad for Volpe because he wants so badly to draw a line in the sand and yell as loud as he knows that Apple has failed…and yet, he just can’t do it. Almost every damming accusation is immediately followed by a “well Apple customers are dumb and will buy it anyway even though I said it was dumb.” That’s me paraphrasing by the way, it’s not an actual quote.
I have no idea how successful Apple Watch will be. In 2006 I hoped that Apple wasn’t working on a cell phone because I hated cell phones. Before that, nobody will likely forget CmdrTaco’s iPod review (“No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame.”). I had friends telling me that the “iSad” (they were referring to the iPad) was D.O.A. and wouldn’t sell.
What I have been keeping track of is how wrong alpha nerds tend to be about what will sell and what won’t. This isn’t about “who should win”, but about what the numbers are after all the counting is done. Predictions are great, and when you’re wrong…own it. Articles like this, where they want so badly to be right and to only own being right are just kind of sad.
Full disclosure: I own AAPL and strongly recommend you buy two…of everything Apple makes.
What if the 30% in-app split was going to put them out of business, would people still want them to stick with it and then have nothing?
It seems like most are terrible, right? You could do worse than Sol Mexican Grill. Phone number and hours at the top of every page and a non-Flash/PDF menu. That’s how you win at this game.